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How Trade Policy Uncertainty Stripped US GDP of $100 Billion

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A new research paper by IHS Markit estimates that a surge in news-based and earnings-call-based indexes of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) in the past two years has lowered U.S. capital spending and real gross domestic product (GDP) by $100 billion, or 0.5 percent. IHS Markit chief economist Nariman Behravesh and executive director Sara Johnson wrote…

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